做决策的过程就是处理未来情景中所固有的不确定性的过程。没有人可以准确地预测未来,但是将未来的不确定性进行准确地数学描述是可以做到的,例如没有人会准确的预知明天是否会下雨,但是根据各种天气数据进行分析,得出明天的降雨概率甚至是降雨概率的分布区间是可以做到的。有了这样量化的描述,使我们对未来的情形的认识更加形象化了。假如 The process of making decisions is the process of dealing with the uncertainty inherent in future scenarios. No one can accurately predict the future, but accurate mathematical description of future uncertainty can be done, such as no one can predict accurately whether it will rain tomorrow, but based on a variety of weather data analysis, drawn Tomorrow’s probability of rain and even probability distribution of rainfall can be done. With this quantitative description, our understanding of the future situation is even more visualized. if