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本文在对灰色动态模型的建立、分析和总结的基础上介绍了灰色动态模型的基本原理。并对紫萍铺站的年径流量进行预测,通过预测后的结果同实际数据相比可发现该模型的预报精度满足使用要求。由于灰色动态模型进行水文预报时只需要较短序列的水文资料,这为那些没有较长序列资料的河流和地区提供了一种简单实用的预报模型。
Based on the establishment, analysis and summary of gray dynamic model, this paper introduces the basic principle of gray dynamic model. The annual runoff of Ziping shop is predicted. Compared with the actual data, the prediction accuracy of this model can be found to meet the requirements of use. Since the gray dynamic model requires only a short sequence of hydrological data for hydrological forecasting, it provides a simple and practical forecasting model for rivers and regions without long sequence data.