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基于中、美、德、俄1995-2011年投入产出数据,利用非进口竞争型价格影响模型测算房价变动对各行业价格以及一般物价水平的影响。结果表明:房地产业价格变动对虚拟经济类产业影响大于对实体经济类产业,对消费者价格指数的影响大于对其他价格指数的影响;房地产业价格变动对物价水平的影响程度与经济发展程度、经济虚拟化程度正相关。相比而言,中国政府和金融业对房地产业的依赖太大。建议缩短金融杠杆、减少政府对土地财政的依赖并注重实体经济的发展。
Based on the input-output data of China, the United States, Germany, and Russia from 1995 to 2011, we use the non-import competitive price impact model to estimate the impact of house price changes on the prices of various industries and the general price level. The results show that: the real estate industry price change has greater impact on the virtual economy industry than the real economy industry, and the impact on the consumer price index is greater than other price indices; the impact of the real estate industry price changes on the price level and the economic development level, The degree of economic virtualization is positively correlated. In contrast, the Chinese government and financial sector rely too much on the real estate industry. It is suggested to shorten the financial leverage, reduce the government’s dependence on land finance and pay attention to the development of the real economy.