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在《文明的演变》和《悲剧和希望》两书中,美国著名历史学家卡罗尔·奎格利提出了一种以强调人、文化、环境三要素之间的互动、以扩张工具的生成和机制化为核心的历史分析工具;奎格利以此来解释文明的兴衰,并将其细化为混合、孕育、扩张、冲突、普遍帝国、衰败和入侵等七个阶段。以奎格利对西方文明的有关论述为标本,本文力图勾勒其文明史观的总体脉络,归纳其精髓,评论其得失。
In the book Evolution of Civilization and Tragedy and Hope, the famous American historian Carol Quigley proposed a strategy to emphasize the interaction between the three elements of human, culture and environment in order to expand the tools Generation and mechanism as the core of historical analysis tools; Quigley used to explain the rise and fall of civilization, and refined into seven stages of mixing, breeding, expansion, conflict, universal empire, decline and invasion. Taking Quigley’s account of the Western civilization as a specimen, this article attempts to outline the general context of his civilization history, sum up its essence and comment on its gains and losses.