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作者根据丰城县1957～1978年流脑流行的资料分析,提出流脑流行趋势预测的若干指标。首先作者认为可以根据历年流行的趋势图找出流行的规律,其次根据若干流行前期的特征进行预测(流行前及流行初期月发病率是否超过标准曲线,发病年龄是否高移,是否出现局部暴发点等),最后提出流行强度的预测征象(前一年发病率未达到“半饱和”状态,前一年流行后期出现暴发点的公社等)。
Based on the epidemiological analysis of epidemic encephalitis in Fengcheng County from 1957 to 1978, the author put forward some indicators for predicting the epidemic trend of epidemic encephalitis. First of all, the authors believe that the prevailing laws can be found according to the trend charts over the years, and secondly, based on the characteristics of some pre-epidemic periods (whether the monthly morbidity before the pre-epidemic period and the pre-epidemic period exceeds the standard curve, whether the age of onset is higher than the standard, whether there is a local outbreak Etc.), and finally put forward the predictive signs of prevalence intensity (the incidence rate in the previous year did not reach the state of “half-saturation”, the outbreak of communes in the latter part of the epidemic of the previous year, etc.).