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在16世纪,甚至更早时候,中国实际上已经出现过具有现代信用特征的金融工具,即盐引。令人遗憾的是,它还远未能发展成一个完整的现代金融系统从而为大规模的现代工业生产提供动力,就已经夭折。明末盐引的废除使近代中国很难发展出现代银行制度和有效的资本市场。本文通过“掠夺之手”的理论视角去考察盐引与明代金融市场的发展轨迹。进一步地,本文试图为研究中国传统社会的社会结构及其长期制度变迁对经济绩效的影响提供一个逻辑一致的研究框架。本文认为,强大的专制主义政府的存在及其对市场的过度干预,扼制和扭曲了市场力量的成长,进而导致近代中国走入低效制度与落后经济相互加强的恶性循环,最终导致历史上曾长期领先西方的中国在近代迅速衰落。
In the 16th century and even earlier, China actually had a financial instrument with modern credit features, namely, the lead. It is regrettable that it has died far from being able to develop into a complete modern financial system and thus power large-scale modern industrial production. The abolition of salt citation at the end of the Ming Dynasty made it very difficult for modern China to develop a modern banking system and an effective capital market. This paper examines the development of the financial market and the development of the financial market in Ming Dynasty through the theoretical perspective of “predatory hand”. Further, this article attempts to provide a logical and consistent framework for studying the social structure of China’s traditional society and the impact of its long-term institutional changes on economic performance. This article argues that the existence of a powerful authoritarian government and its excessive intervention in the market will curb and distort the growth of market forces and thus lead to the vicious circle of mutually reinforcing ineffectiveness and backwardness in modern China, China, a long-term leader in the West, declined rapidly in recent years.