论文部分内容阅读
运用修正的恒定市场份额模型(CMS模型)对1992～2009年中国家禽产品出口贸易波动的主要影响因素及其作用强度和变化趋势进行了实证分析。研究表明:在贸易发展的不同阶段,国际市场需求、出口结构和出口竞争力对中国家禽品出口波动的作用程度不尽相同,不断变化的市场需求是主导中国家禽品出口波动的主要原因,而家禽产品出口竞争力下降、出口市场高度集中以及出口产品结构不合理是制约中国家禽产品出口稳定增长的重要原因。
Applying the modified constant market share model (CMS model), this paper empirically analyzes the main factors affecting the volatility of China's poultry export trade from 1992 to 2009, as well as the intensity and trend of the changes. The research shows that in different stages of trade development, the effects of international market demand, export structure and export competitiveness on the fluctuation of China's poultry exports are not the same, and the changing market demand is the main reason leading the fluctuation of China's exports of poultry products. The decline in the export competitiveness of poultry products, the high concentration of export markets and the irrational structure of export products are the major reasons that restrict the steady growth of China's poultry exports.