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笔者提出一种新的办法:预测年度需求,确定产能变化情况和成本分布曲线,以确定年度均衡产量以及与之对应的“合理价格”。2017年铝价逻辑探讨——合理铝价根据经济学的基本原理,决定某一商品价格是供应和需求曲线的匹配。大宗商品需求的价格弹性较小,因此不能仅仅考虑宏观以及下游行业的增长,以确定需求量(需求曲线的移动)。关键还在于“供应曲线”的预测。这里涉及
The author proposes a new approach: forecast annual demand, determine changes in capacity and cost distribution curve to determine the annual balanced production and its corresponding “reasonable price.” Logic of Aluminum Price in 2017 - Reasonable Aluminum Price According to the basic principles of economics, it is determined that a certain commodity price is a match between the supply and demand curves. The price elasticity of demand for commodities is small, so you can not just look at the macro as well as the growth of the downstream industries to determine the demand (the movement in the demand curve). The key is also the “supply curve” forecast. Involved here