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近年来,中国造纸业积极参与全球化进程,纸和纸制品出口贸易取得了突飞猛进的发展。该文依据1993-2011年中国纸和纸制品出口贸易相关数据,运用多元回归的方法,对可能影响中国纸和纸制品出口的指标进行计量分析。结果显示纸和纸制品出口平均价格、日本和香港人均GDP、木片进口量以及木浆进口量这五个因素的影响最为显著。在此基础上,该文提出了推动纸和纸制品出口可持续发展的建议。
In recent years, the paper industry in China has been actively involved in the process of globalization. The export trade of paper and paper products has made rapid progress. Based on the data of China’s paper and paper products export from 1993 to 2011, this paper uses the multiple regression method to make a quantitative analysis of the indexes that may affect the export of Chinese paper and paper products. The results show that the average export prices of paper and paper products, Japan and Hong Kong’s per capita GDP, imports of wood chips and pulp imports of these five factors the most significant impact. On this basis, the paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the sustainable development of the export of paper and paper products.