对国债市场的分析与思考

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近几年来,我国的国债市场发展势态良好,经过不断探索,已逐步形成较为完善的格局。主要表现在:发行方式市场化;发行速度高效化;发行品种多样化;发行对象规范化。尽管我国国债市场不断发展,已取得很大成就,但是由于起步较晚,缺乏经验,仍存在较突出的问题。一是发行规模不适度。举借速度太快。不利政府长期从市场筹措建设资金,且大量的债务支出资金来源不得不靠发行新债来供应,从而陷入一种‘恶性循环’二是流动效应不明显。国债的流动效应会对经济施加扩张性或抑制性影响。短期债券变现能力强,当政府启动经济、对经济实施刺激时,可扩大短期国债的发行;相反,可扩大长期债券的发行,以降低社会中的流动性。从现状看,目前市场短期、长期国债品种较少,国债的流动性效应还不明显。三是应债来源不合理。1991年实现承购包销发行国债以后,对金融机构发行国债大幅增加,这样,并未减少社会居民 In recent years, the treasury bond market in our country has enjoyed a good momentum of development. After continuous exploration, a fairly complete pattern has been gradually formed. Mainly in: market-based distribution methods; issue speed efficient; diversification of issuers; standardization of issuers. Despite the continuous development of China’s bond market, great achievements have been made. However, due to the late start and lack of experience, there are still some outstanding problems. First, the issue of the scale is not appropriate. To borrow too fast. Adverse government long-term financing from the market to build funds, and a large number of sources of debt funding have to rely on the issuance of new debt to supply, which plunged into a ’vicious circle’ Second, the liquidity effect is not obvious. The liquidity effect of government bonds will exert an expansionary or inhibitory effect on the economy. Short-term bonds have strong liquidity. When the government starts the economy and stimulates the economy, it can expand the issuance of short-term government bonds. On the contrary, the issuance of long-term bonds can be expanded to reduce the liquidity in the society. Judging from the current situation, the current short-term market, long-term bonds less varieties, the liquidity effect of government bonds is not obvious. Third, the sources of debt should be unreasonable. In 1991, after the underwriting of government bonds was underwritten and sold, the issuance of treasury bonds to financial institutions increased substantially. In this way, social debts have not been reduced
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