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本文在新古典投资理论的框架下引入中国转轨时期的制度性因素,建立包括私有部门、国企部门以及政府部门的投资行为模型,论证了国有企业多重目标而导致其过度投资和资本积累,同时解释了在转轨过程中出现的诸如“国退民进”等演化现象,论证了政府倾向于干预经济,施行“逆风向行事”规则,然而因其对项目真实利润的不可准确估测性会导致投资的过度波动,从而表明政府投资可能是经济中投资波动的来源。
Under the framework of neoclassical investment theory, this paper introduces the institutional factors during the transitional period of China and establishes a model of investment behavior including the private sector, state-owned enterprises and government departments. It argues that multiple objectives of state-owned enterprises lead to over-investment and capital accumulation, meanwhile explaining In the process of transition, such evolutionary phenomena as “Guotuiminjin” and other evolutionary phenomena demonstrate that the government tends to intervene in the economy and implement the “reverse wind” rules, however, because of its inaccurate estimate of the real profits of the project Sexuality can lead to excessive volatility in investment, suggesting that government investment may be a source of investment volatility in the economy.