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中国房地产市场近年来一直处于非理性繁荣状态,因此,中央政府陆续出台一系列房地产调控政策旨在挤出房地产泡沫,平抑其投资过热现象,从而实现宏观经济在金融危机后的软着陆。此外,央行不断上调存款准备金率和基准利率更是加重了仍处在调控政策消化阶段的房地产市场的下行预期。根据金融加速器理论,初始的外部冲击通过信贷市场的放大作用,最终将引发大幅度的市场波动,破坏实体经济的正常运行。房地产企业的高负债率和开发模式决定了房地产市场中金融加速器效应十分显著,尤其是在政策变动和楼市供求关系发生逆转的情况下,表现更为明显。最后提出了相应的政策建议。
China’s real estate market has been in an irrational and prosperous state in recent years. Therefore, the Central Government has successively promulgated a series of real estate control policies aimed at squeezing out the real estate bubble and stabilizing its overheated investment so as to achieve a macro-economic soft landing after the financial crisis. In addition, the central bank continued to raise the deposit reserve ratio and the benchmark interest rate is aggravating the regulation and control policies still digested the real estate market downward expectations. According to the theory of financial accelerator, the initial external shock through the enlargement of the credit market will eventually trigger drastic market fluctuations and undermine the normal operation of the real economy. The high debt ratio and development model of real estate companies determine the financial accelerator effect in the real estate market is very significant, especially in the case of policy changes and the supply and demand of the property market reversed, the performance is more obvious. Finally, put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.