论文部分内容阅读
美国季度GDP分为个人消费支出(以下简称消费)、国内私人总投资(以下简称投资)、进出口以及政府消费和投资支出(以下简称政府支出)四个大项。消费项下包括耐用品、非耐用品和服务,其中耐用品指使用期在3年以上的消费品。投资项下包括固定投资和私人库存变动(也称库存投资);固定投资分为住宅投资和非住宅投资。上述需求因素中有一类占季度GDP比重较小的因素,如耐用品消费、库存变动和住宅投资,称为小比重需求因素,简称小比重因素。本文拟就2000年以来上述三个小比重因素的影响力和波动性进行实证研究,并据此推断今年美国经济走势的一些特点。
The quarterly GDP of the United States is divided into four major items: personal consumption expenditure (hereinafter referred to as consumption), total domestic private investment (hereinafter referred to as investment), import and export, and government spending and investment expenditure (hereinafter referred to as government expenditure). Consumption items include durable goods, non-durable goods and services, of which durable goods refer to consumer goods with a useful life of more than 3 years. Investments include fixed and private inventory movements (also known as inventory investment); fixed investment is divided into residential investment and non-residential investment. Among the above-mentioned demand factors, there are a small proportion of quarterly GDP, such as the consumption of durable goods, inventory changes and residential investment, which are called the small proportion of demand factors and the small proportion of factors. This article intends to conduct an empirical study on the influence and volatility of the above three small-scale factors since 2000 and infer some characteristics of the U.S. economic trend this year.