论文部分内容阅读
地球系统中各种空间对象在时空及功能上的直接或间接的依赖关系是研究各种复杂问题的出发点,模拟和分析这些对象之间的直接和间接制约关系往往是认识复杂系统和进行空间决策的基础,如在地震、洪水、火灾等突发性事件发生过程中各种应急设施和部门的相互影响和制约往往是复杂的、不协调的关系.由此产生的级联效应往往会造成意想不到的严重后果.如何提高对灾害效应的认识,预警预报灾害的级联效应是提高灾害预防和应急反应能力的重要基础.在研究灾害事件中相关对象之间的空间复杂结构的基础上,通过建立定量关系来表示对象之间的相互关系,采用模糊Petri网技术模拟对象之间的级联效应.以四川汶川大地震后堰塞湖的空间复杂结构为例,动态模拟堰塞湖的潜在级联效应,推测出易受影响的堰塞湖,从而为有效防治地震后的次生灾害提供一种理论与技术思路.该方法和技术同样可以用于其他地学复杂系统结构的模拟和分析.
The direct or indirect dependencies of various spatial objects in the Earth system in space, time and function are the starting points for studying various complex problems. The direct and indirect constraints on the simulation and analysis of these objects are often the problems of understanding complex systems and making spatial decisions Such as the complex and uncoordinated relations between various emergency facilities and departments during the occurrence of unexpected events such as earthquakes, floods and fires, etc. The resulting cascade effect often results in Can not be expected serious consequences.How to improve the understanding of disaster effects, early warning and predicting disaster cascade effect is to improve disaster prevention and emergency response capacity of an important foundation.In studying the complex structure of the space between the relevant objects in the disaster event, based on Establish a quantitative relationship to represent the interrelationships between objects and use fuzzy Petri nets to simulate the cascade effect between objects.With the complex spatial structure of the dammed lake after the Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan Province as an example, Synergistic effect, presumed vulnerable dammed lake, so as to provide effective measures for effective prevention and control of post-earthquake secondary disasters And technical idea. The methods and techniques can also be used to analyze and simulate complex systems other structures geoscience.