2017年的全球经济依然难逃“停滞、分化、动荡、冲突”的格局,全球宏观经济与金融市场将至少面临四重不确定性的冲击。注定不平凡的2017年已经到来。笔者曾经用“停滞、分化、动荡、冲突”这四个关键词来刻画2016年的全球经济。所谓停滞,是指全球经济在2008年全球金融危机爆发后陷入了增长持续低迷的怪圈。所谓分化,是指各国增长态势在全球低迷的背景下有好有坏、苦 The global economy in 2017 will still be unable to escape the pattern of “stagnation, fragmentation, turmoil and conflict” and the global macroeconomic and financial markets will at least face the impact of quadruple uncertainty. Destined to be an extraordinary 2017 has arrived. The author has used the four words “stagnation, differentiation, turmoil, conflict” to portray the global economy for 2016. The so-called stagnation means that the global economy has plunged into a vicious circle of persistent growth downturn after the global financial crisis in 2008. The so-called differentiation refers to the pros and cons of countries in the context of global downturn