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我国房地产业面临较为严峻的问题和挑战,区别于定性分析房地产行业的供求关系,本文以灰色系统理论为基础,建立了住房需求和供给两方面的灰色系统GM(1,N)模型进行定量分析。得出结论有:在需求方面,模型结果显示了我国的房地产市场呈畸形发展趋势,即随着价格高涨消费者需求却上升,人均国内生产总值对需求起反作用,有悖于市场规律,从而解释了在金融危机爆发后我国房市却异常火爆的现象;在供给方面,价格对供给起很大的促进作用,投资则作用较小。
China’s real estate industry is facing more serious problems and challenges, different from the qualitative analysis of supply and demand of the real estate industry. Based on the gray system theory, this paper establishes a gray system GM (1, N) model of housing demand and supply for quantitative analysis . On the demand side, the model results show that the real estate market in our country shows a trend of deformity. That is to say, as the price increases, the demand of consumers rises, and the GDP per capita has a counterproductive effect on demand, which is contrary to market rules. Explained the phenomenon that the housing market in our country was extremely hot after the outbreak of the financial crisis; on the supply side, prices played a significant role in promoting supply while investment was less effective.