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充分掌握过去全球气候变化的规律,是分析现在全球气候变化的关键。为了重建近2 000a的全球(主要是北半球)的温度时空格局,Mann使用了1 209条代用序列。主要评价Mann等在重建中世纪暖期以来(公元800年以来)全球(主要是北半球)的温度时空格局时,所使用的46条代用序列中的8条石笋序列。其中北半球的序列(6条)要多于南半球的序列(2条)。通过对所选石笋序列的文献检索和科学评估,认为Mann等最初选用的8条石笋序列和筛选后剩余的6条石笋序列并非都代表温度信号,其中只有两条序列是原作者认为代表温度信号的,代表降水量信号的序列要多于代表温度信号的序列。所以Mann等选用这些序列重建温度有待商榷。由于石笋代用指标本身的复杂性,其气候指示意义仍然存在争议。
To fully grasp the law of global climate change in the past is the key to analyzing the current global climate change. In order to reconstruct the temperature-time pattern of nearly 2 000 a global (mainly in the northern hemisphere), Mann used 1 209 substitutive sequences. It mainly evaluates 8 stalagmites out of 46 substitution sequences used by Mann et al. In rebuilding the temperature-time pattern of the world (mainly the northern hemisphere) since the Middle Ages (around 800 AD). The northern hemisphere sequence (6) than the southern hemisphere sequence (2). Based on the literature review and scientific evaluation of the selected stalagmite sequences, it is concluded that the eight stalagmite sequences originally selected by Mann et al. And the remaining six stalagmite sequences after screening are not representative of the temperature signals. Only two of the sequences are considered by the original author to represent the temperature signal The sequence representing the precipitation signal is more than the sequence representing the temperature signal. Therefore, Mann et al use these sequences to reconstruct the temperature to be discussed. Due to the complexity of the proxy index itself, the significance of climate indicator remains controversial.