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利用长安气象观测站 1 0 a的冬小麦生育期、产量及气象观测资料 ,用回归分析法确定出冬小麦生育期间的冬前分蘖、拔节到孕穗期降水量、开花到乳熟期的降雨日数 3个因子与冬小麦产量相关显著。然后利用这 3个因子进行模糊聚类 ,并用预报年的相关资料计算做出产量趋势预报。对 1 999年和 2 0 0 0年西安地区产量年景试报 ,预报结果正确。
Using the growth period, yield and meteorological observation data of winter wheat in Chang’an meteorological observation station 10 years, regression analysis was used to determine the winter tillering during winter wheat growth period, the precipitation from jointing to booting stage and the number of rainfall from flowering to milky ripening stage The factor was significantly correlated with winter wheat yield. Then use these three factors to carry out fuzzy clustering, and forecast the yield trend by using the relevant data of the forecast year. Forecasting the annual production of Xi’an in 1999 and 2000, the forecast result is correct.