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森林植被在改善生态环境,维持区域碳氧平衡等方面发挥了重要作用,但影响区域森林碳储量的社会经济因素尚不清楚。江苏是中国东部沿海经济大省,生态环境承载压力较大。文章运用因子连续函数法对江苏省森林碳储量进行了估算,基于51个县(市)的样本数据,对影响森林碳储量的社会经济因素进行了探讨。结果表明:2005—2010年,江苏省森林碳储量由25.90×106 t C增加到46.16×106 t C,森林碳“汇”效应显著,但各区域的碳储量变化不均衡;森林面积和林业产值对森林碳储量的影响显著为正,地区生产总值和公路里程数对其影响显著为负,人口因素的影响不显著;在江苏地区生产总值仍将保持一定时期惯性增长的条件下,增加森林面积和林业产值,提升森林的经营技术水平,对于提高江苏的森林碳储量具有重要作用。
Forest vegetation played an important role in improving the ecological environment and maintaining regional carbon and oxygen balance, but the socio-economic factors that affect the area’s forest carbon storage are not yet clear. Jiangsu is a large coastal province in eastern China with a heavy pressure on its ecological environment. This paper estimates the forest carbon stocks in Jiangsu Province by using the factor continuous function method. Based on the sample data of 51 counties (cities), the socio-economic factors that affect the forest carbon stocks are discussed. The results showed that: From 2005 to 2010, the forest carbon storage in Jiangsu Province increased from 25.90 × 106 t C to 46.16 × 106 t C, and the effect of forest carbon “sinks” was significant, but the carbon stocks in all the areas changed unevenly. The forest area and The impact of forestry output value on forest carbon storage was significantly positive. The impact of regional GDP and highway mileage was significantly negative, and the impact of population factors was insignificant. While the GDP of Jiangsu Province would still maintain a certain period of inertia growth , Increasing the forest area and output value of forestry and improving the management level of the forest will play an important role in increasing the forest carbon storage in Jiangsu.