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1979—1988年,我国农村剩余劳动力转移出现了不同寻常的高速率。农村剩余劳动力向非农产业高速率转移,无疑为这时期的国民生产总值高增长作出了很大贡献,但也可能产生一些消极的影响。一个推测是,在中国这样一个资金短缺的低收入发展中国家,农村剩余劳动力向非农产业转移的速率过高,有可能是在货币供给过度增长的条件下实现的,从而成为1985年以来我国通货膨胀日益严重的重要原因之一。本文的目的在于通过一定的理论和经验数据分折,对我国农村剩余劳动力高速转移与货币增长的关联进行考察,进而对农村剩余劳动力高速率转移对通货膨胀的影响作一些论证。如果农村剩余劳动力转移速率过高是导致通货膨胀的重要原因之一,就有必要对数年来我国农村剩余劳动力转移的速率、途径及其有关政策进行重新审视。
From 1979 to 1988, there was an unusually high rate of transfer of surplus rural labor force in our country. The transfer of rural surplus labor to non-agricultural industries at a high rate has undoubtedly made a significant contribution to the high growth of GNP during this period, but it may also have some negative effects. One hypothesis is that in a low-income developing country like China, where capital is scarce, the excess transfer of rural surplus labor to non-agricultural industries is likely to be realized under the conditions of excessive growth of the money supply and thus China’s One of the important reasons for the worsening inflation. The purpose of this paper is to examine the correlation between the rapid transfer of rural surplus labor and monetary growth in China through some theoretical and empirical data, and then to make some arguments about the impact of the high rate of rural surplus labor transfer on inflation. If the transfer rate of rural surplus labor is too high, which is one of the important causes of inflation, it is necessary to re-examine the rate and channels of transfer of surplus rural labor force in China in the past few years and related policies.