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使用灰色马尔柯夫链预测方法预报宣城地区粮食总产 ,其结果不仅时效好 ,而且既能反映出趋势产量 ,又能反映出气象产量 ,预报准确率比单纯使用灰色GM(1,1)模型显著提高。 1998、1999年试报误差均小于 1.5 %。
The forecast of total grain output in Xuancheng by using gray Markov chain forecast method not only shows good time-effectiveness, but also reflects the trend yield as well as the meteorological output. The forecasting accuracy rate is significantly higher than the gray GM (1,1) model improve. The test error in 1998 and 1999 were less than 1.5%.