论文部分内容阅读
我国当前处于城镇化、机动化的高速发展阶段,机动车数量呈现井喷式增长,有必要对其增长规律进行研究并预测其未来发展趋势。本文重点研究我国机动车增长特点、饱和状态及重要因素影响作用。本文以已有机动化“五阶段”发展规律为基础,通过全国范围内实施3000余份问卷调查,分析研究了公共交通服务水平对机动车购买及使用的影响;通过对不同机动化限制政策的分析、对比、总结,探索政策限制对机动化进程的影响。并以这两个因素的变化设立不同情景,探索不同情景下我国机动车增长及饱和值变化。
At present, China is in the stage of rapid urbanization and motorization. The number of motor vehicles has seen a spurt of growth. It is necessary to study its growth pattern and predict its future development trend. This article focuses on the growth characteristics of China’s motor vehicles, saturation and the impact of important factors. Based on the existing law of motorization and the development of “Five Phases”, this paper analyzes and studies the impact of the level of public transport service on the purchase and use of motor vehicles through nationwide implementation of more than 3,000 questionnaires. Through the analysis of different motorization restrictions Policy analysis, contrast, sum up, to explore the impact of policy constraints on the motorization process. And set up different scenarios based on the changes of these two factors to explore the growth of motor vehicles and the changes of saturation under different scenarios.