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目的构建以指标体系为基础架构的传染病突发事件公共卫生风险评估模式。方法利用文献综述、经验判断、层次分析、Delphi专家咨询、专家评议等方法构建风险评估指标体系。结果利用构建完毕的指标体系对某传染病事件进行定量评分,再根据风险的等级标准确定传染病事件风险评级水平。结论任何单一评估方法都具有局限性,在资料信息不可能完备精准的前提下,评估结果具有不确定性,应采用综合评估方法评价传染病事件风险。
Objective To construct a public health risk assessment model of infectious disease emergencies based on the index system. Methods Based on literature review, empirical judgment, level analysis, Delphi expert consultation, expert review and other methods, a risk assessment index system was constructed. Results The constructed index system was used to quantitatively score an infectious disease event, and then the risk rating level of infectious disease events was determined according to the level of risk rating. Conclusion Any single evaluation method has its own limitations. Under the premise that data information can not be completely accurate, the evaluation result is uncertain. A comprehensive evaluation method should be used to evaluate the risk of an infectious disease event.