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为对城市埋地燃气管道系统危险性进行动态评价及预测,为管理者提供更客观的、可靠的管理依据,将集对分析(SPA)理论和马尔科夫链相结合用于城市埋地燃气系统的动态评价中。针对城市埋地燃气管道系统存在不确定性和动态变化的特点,提出集状态评价和预测分析于一体的城市埋地燃气系统动态危险性评价预测方法。该方法利用SPA的多元联系数对系统的危险等级进行划分,运用马尔科夫链的遍历性,并将结果与集对势相结合,预测城市埋地燃气管道系统最终的危险水平。
In order to provide a more objective and reliable management basis for the dynamic assessment and prediction of the risk of buried gas pipeline system in cities, the combination of SPA theory and Markov chain for city buried gas Dynamic evaluation of the system. In view of the uncertainties and dynamic changes of buried gas pipeline system in cities, this paper puts forward a method of dynamic hazard assessment and assessment of urban gas systems with integrated state assessment and prediction analysis. The method divides the hazard level of the system by using the multi-connection coefficient of SPA, and uses the ergodicity of Markov chain, and combines the result with the set-pair potential to predict the ultimate danger level of the buried gas pipeline system in the city.