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本文分析了人口数量变动和流动格局与经济增长的关系。由于中国对人口生育的集中计划,形成了政府管制和市场机制两种力量调节人口增长率,导致其快速下降。在经济发展尚未达到工业化完成之前,有活力人口减少和人口老化,致使经济增长失去了动力,结果是未富先老、未强先衰。本文从人口增长与经济增长二者之间的数理关系和2007年以来处理二者关系的实践方面,论证和描述了人口增长上行和下行、人口城市化进程的扭曲等,对经济增长的上行推力和下行压力。本文认为,计划生育的一个重大缺陷是,只能对人口数量进行调减,但不能对各年龄人口按比例进行调节,造成了人口结构老化失衡,巨额养老金缺口,中青年劳动力减少,老年延长退休而工作效率下降,养老成本上升,从而使国民经济全球竞争力受到影响。本文认为,由于1995年到2014年之间人口增长率仍然是一个下行和低迷的曲线,对2015年到2033年间的国民经济向中低速度增长变化有着很强的下行影响。最后,本文提出了相关的战略调整和政策建议。
This article analyzes the relationship between population changes and the pattern of flows and economic growth. Due to China’s centralized plan of population procreation, a government regulation and a market mechanism have been formed to adjust the population growth rate, resulting in its rapid decline. Before the economic development has reached the stage of industrialization, there is a decrease in the vitality of the population and an aging population, which has lost the impetus to economic growth. Based on the mathematical relationship between population growth and economic growth and the practice of handling the relationship between the two since 2007, this paper argues and describes the upward thrust and downward movement of population growth, the distortions of population urbanization and so on. And downward pressure. This paper argues that one of the major defects of family planning is that it can only reduce the population but can not adjust proportionally to the population of all ages. This has led to an imbalance in the population structure, a huge pension gap, a decrease in the number of young and middle-aged working people, and an increase in the elderly Retirement and work efficiency decline, pension costs rise, so that the competitiveness of the national economy will be affected. This paper argues that since the population growth rate between 1995 and 2014 is still a downward trend and a downturn, it will have a strong downward impact on the growth of low and medium-speed domestic economy from 2015 to 2033. Finally, this paper puts forward the related strategic adjustment and policy suggestions.