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从现在起至2000年,鉴于经济行情和趋势的复杂多变、国际贸易结构的变化以及其他可能因素的作用,有必要探索世界工业的多种前景。第一种前景是要描述,在经济增长缓慢、经济政策不变的背景下,世界工业生产主要部门的配置和地区分布情况。根据这种设想,打入国外的分公司的非定点生产将占整个世界工业生产的1/4,即接近于工业出口水平。从世界工业生产的分布来看,北美和欧洲的比重可能会有所下降,而使亚洲发达国家和地区的比重相对上升。电子和化学将依然是最有活力的部门。根据国际合作程度,还可以描绘出另外两种前景。例如,一连串的保护主义有可能导致各大区之间贸易关系日益紧张,以及多边谈判失败,随之所有国家在经济增长和通货膨胀方面都将受到损害。相反,也可以假设东方和南方国家不仅政治稳定、资金供应有保证,而且成功地实现了经济一体化,工业国家也向这些新的竞争对手实行开放政策。这些假设如果成为现实,那么世界经济就有可能重新恢复增长。
From now until 2000, it is necessary to explore the many perspectives of the world’s industry in view of the complex and volatile economic conditions and trends, changes in the structure of international trade and the role of other possible factors. The first prospect is to describe the configuration and geographical distribution of the major industrial sectors in the world in the context of slow economic growth and constant economic policies. According to this assumption, the non-fixed-point production of branches entering foreign countries will make up one-fourth of the world’s industrial production, which is close to the level of industrial exports. From the perspective of the distribution of world industrial production, the share of North America and Europe may decline, leaving the proportion of developed countries and regions in Asia to rise relatively. Electronics and chemistry will remain the most dynamic sectors. Depending on the level of international cooperation, two other perspectives can also be delineated. For example, a series of protectionist policies could lead to increasing tensions in trade relations between major regions and the failure of multilateral negotiations, which will undermine the economic growth and inflation of all countries. On the contrary, it can also be assumed that the countries of the East and the South not only have political stability, guaranteed capital supply, but also have successfully achieved economic integration. Industrialized countries have also adopted an opening-up policy to these new competitors. If these assumptions become a reality, then the world economy is likely to regain growth.