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首先通过分析技术引进、自主研究开发与其它经济活动的相关关系 ,建立一个计量经济联立方程模型 .在此基础上以工业研究开发投入和技术引进投入为工具变量 ,以国内生产总值、工业增加值、工业总产值和固定资产投资等主要经济变量为目标变量 ,模拟在工具变量不同投入比的情况下 2 0 0 0年至2 0 1 0年各目标变量的增长趋势 ,并进性比较分析 .最后以上述模拟分析结果为依据 ,对我国工业适宜的技术发展战略选择做出理性判断 .
First of all, through the analysis of the introduction of technology, independent research and development and other economic activities, the relationship between the establishment of a econometrics simultaneous equations model.On the basis of industrial research and development investment and technology investment as a tool for input, with the gross domestic product, industrial The main economic variables such as value added, industrial output value and investment in fixed assets as the target variables to simulate the growth trend of all the target variables from 2000 to 2010 with different input ratios of the instrumental variables, Finally, based on the above simulation results, this paper makes a rational judgment on the suitable strategy of industrial development in China.