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长期来看,中国的化肥使用量呈现出“总量增长,结构改变,区域差异未见缩小”的特点,并有一定程度的过量使用现象。1985-2014年,化肥投入显著增加了粮食产量,播种面积增加也起到相同促进作用。而机械投入、乡村就业人数、自然灾害的增加将对粮食增产起到反向影响。未来治理化肥投入过量的关键在于提高化肥利用率,实现化肥的科学使用,形成粮食丰产,农业发展与农民增收的局面,最终实现国家粮食安全保障的根本目标。
In the long run, China’s use of chemical fertilizers will show the characteristics of “total growth, structural changes, no narrowing of regional differences” and a certain degree of over-utilization. From 1985 to 2014, the input of chemical fertilizers significantly increased the grain yield, and the increased sown area played the same role. However, the investment in machinery, the number of rural workers and the increase of natural disasters will have an opposite effect on the increase of grain output. In the future, the key to excessive management of chemical fertilizers lies in improving the utilization rate of chemical fertilizers, realizing the scientific use of chemical fertilizers, forming the situation of high grain yield, agricultural development and peasant incomes, and finally realizing the fundamental goal of national food security.