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税源预测的准确率一直是我国税收工作中的一个难题。现代财税理论与西方发达国家的实践经验为提高税源预测的准确率提供了一个规范。本文从实际工作出发,借鉴国际经验,探讨了新形势下税源预测的目标定位、税源信息的采集和处理、预测技术、方法的选择与应用、预测结果的评价与使用等多个环节,以构建较为完善的税源预测体系,提高税源预测的准确性。
The accuracy of tax source forecasting has always been a problem in our tax work. Modern fiscal tax theory and western developed countries’ practical experience provide a criterion for improving the accuracy of tax source forecasting. Based on the practical work and using international experience for reference, this article explores the target orientation of tax source forecast, the collection and processing of tax source information in the new situation, the selection and application of forecasting techniques and methods, the evaluation and application of forecast results, A more complete tax source forecasting system to improve the accuracy of the tax source forecast.