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2008年是我国橡胶市场的调整年,突出地表现在两个方面:一是由于外需不足、内需不振,橡胶需求增势显著放缓;二是市场价格走势盛极而衰,由涨转跌。受全球经济衰退影响,橡胶消费低迷的状况预计将主导胶价中长期走势,胶价向下压力较为沉重。据此来看,短期内橡胶市场颓市难改,仍有继续回落的空间。但在颓市之中,也存在潜在的有利因素。综合判断,预计2009年国内橡胶市场呈现先抑后扬的走势,总体价格水平低于2008年。
2008 is the year of adjustment of China’s rubber market, prominently manifested in two aspects: First, due to lack of external demand, sluggish domestic demand, the rubber demand growth slowed down significantly; second, the market price trend is very prosperous, from up to down. Affected by the global economic downturn, the downturn in rubber consumption is expected to dominate the medium and long-term rubber price movements and the downward pressure on rubber prices will be heavier. From this point of view, the rubber market in the short term difficult to change the decadent market, there is still room for further decline. But in the decadent market, there are also potential positive factors. Comprehensive judgments, the domestic rubber market is expected to be the first to be followed by the Yang trend in 2009, the overall price level is lower than in 2008.