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随着“天保工程”和国有林区商业性禁伐政策的全面实施,黑龙江省林业产业结构面临着全面转型和升级的新形势。在分析了近年来林业系统中涉林产业结构发展状况的基础上,文章利用马尔科夫转移矩阵定量测度林业产业结构转化程度和转化趋向。结果表明:黑龙江省林业产业结构整体转化趋向为“二、一、三”结构模式;林业第一产业内部结构转化趋向为经济林产品的种植和采集、林木的培养和种植;林业第二产业仍保持初级林产品加工为主体的发展模式;第三产业中森林旅游与休闲服务业将逐步成为林业主导产业。最后,在既定林业政策下,针对发现的若干问题给出相应的调整建议。
With the “Natural Forest Protection Project” and the full implementation of the commercial logging ban policy in Heilongjiang Province, the forestry structure in Heilongjiang Province is facing a new situation of overall transition and upgrading. Based on the analysis of the development of forestry industry structure in forestry system in recent years, the paper uses Markov transition matrix to quantitatively measure the degree and transformation tendency of forestry industry structure. The results showed that the overall transformation of forestry industry structure in Heilongjiang Province tended to be the structural model of “two, one and three”; the transformation of the internal structure of forestry primary industry tended to be the cultivation and collection of economic forest products, the cultivation and planting of forestry; the secondary industry of forestry Still maintain the primary forest products processing as the main mode of development; the tertiary industry in the forest tourism and leisure services will gradually become the leading industry in forestry. Finally, under the established forestry policy, we will make corresponding adjustments to some of the problems identified.