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2010年欧亚关税同盟成立,哈萨克斯坦对外关税大幅提升,根据贸易转移理论,哈萨克斯坦将减少对关税同盟外各国的进口。至于该事件是否阻碍了中哈出口贸易,目前却无定论。为了研究该问题,本文基于HS 6位编码商品,使用系统GMM方法定量分析了2007-2014年间中国对哈萨克斯坦出口贸易的面板数据。实证结果表明,虽然哈萨克斯坦关税大幅上升,但由于灰色清关现象的广泛存在,中国出口几乎没有因此而减少。相比之下,哈萨克斯坦打击灰色清关之举则会对中哈出口贸易造成较大冲击,不过该举措同时也有助于规范双边贸易、营造良好的贸易环境。
In 2010, when the Eurasian Customs Union was established, the foreign tariff of Kazakhstan increased substantially. According to the theory of trade transfer, Kazakhstan would reduce the import of foreign countries outside the customs union. Whether the incident has hindered the export trade between China and Kazakhstan is inconclusive at this stage. In order to study this problem, this article uses the system GMM method to quantitatively analyze the panel data of China’s export trade to Kazakhstan from 2007 to 2014 based on HS 6-digit coded goods. The empirical results show that despite the substantial increase in tariffs in Kazakhstan, due to the widespread presence of gray customs clearance, China’s exports have hardly diminished. In contrast, Kazakhstan’s crackdown on gray clearance will have a greater impact on the export trade between China and Kazakhstan, but it will also help regulate bilateral trade and create a favorable trading environment.