依据1972—1983年本所丰产试验茶园的春茶产量资料和同期的气象记录,首先用正交多项式回归方法计算了春茶的趋势产量,再根据所分离出的气象产量,利用改进的费希尔(Fisher)积分回归方法分析了秋冬季气温、降水量和日照时数三个气象因子与翌年春茶产量的积分回归模式,并计算了各因子各时段对翌年春茶产量的影响系数。本研究利用数学方法定量地分析了秋冬季气象条件对翌年春茶产量的影响大小及原因,对提高春茶气象产量所应采取的栽培措施有一定的指导意义。 Based on the spring tea yield data and the meteorological records of the high yielding test tea plantations in 1972-1983, the trend yield of spring tea was calculated by orthogonal polynomial regression method. Based on the meteorological yield isolated, Fisher integral regression method was used to analyze the integral regression model of autumn and winter temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours to the yield of the next spring and spring. The coefficient of influence on the yield of the next spring was calculated. In this study, mathematical methods were used to quantitatively analyze the influence of the autumn and winter meteorological conditions on the yield of spring and next year, and to provide some guidance for improving the meteorological output of spring tea.