本文通过实例讨论了概率的分计与合计以及概率的传递性问题,说明这些问题的结论往往有悖于人们的直觉.例如:概率的分计与合计不一致的情况经常出现;等式的传递性(若,则)在概率的推断中未必成立;不等式的传递性(若,则)在概率中也不一定成立。因此,在遇到这类问题时不能单凭经验和直觉,而是要有理论依据。 In this paper, we discuss the subtotals and total probabilities of probability and the transitivity of probabilities by examples, and the conclusions of these problems often run counter to people’s intuition: for example, the subtotals and total inconsistencies of probabilities often appear; the transitivity (If it is) is not necessarily true in the inference of probability; the transitivity of inequality (if it is) does not necessarily hold true in probability. Therefore, in the face of such problems can not be based on experience and intuition, but to have a theoretical basis.