后金融危机时代中东欧社会经济转型评估

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社会经济转型促进了中东欧国家经济、社会的发展,特别是对于已成为欧盟成员国的波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克和匈牙利来说,资源共享、产业转移更是推动其经济突飞猛进地增长。但随着金融危机爆发,匈牙利、捷克、斯洛伐克等国经济显著衰退,匈牙利的情况尤为严重。然而,波兰经济却维持了正增长。相对较低的经济开放性和强劲的内需抑制了波兰经济下滑,而金融危机对出口的打击造成了匈牙利、捷克、斯洛伐克其他经济部门收缩的连锁反应。同时,相对于其他国家来说,匈牙利对外币贷款的依赖程度较高,缺乏金融监管,而且过高的通胀造成其具有较高的金融体系风险。虽然各国都面临较为恶劣的商业环境,但中小企业的发展为波兰经济和金融危机期间国内总需求的稳步增长提供了保证。波兰经济稳定并不能说明其社会经济转型最为成功。较高的长期失业率和年轻人失业率等劳动力市场的结构性问题和较严重的腐败现象,是各国共同面临的问题。立足于中东欧国家现实发展基础的薄弱环节,以国际发展横向比较视野,在后金融危机时代,中东欧国家在科研创新、巩固财政、发展教育等方面依然面临挑战,各国应接受挑战,抓住机遇,在促进本国社会经济结构改革健康运转的同时,加强与中国的沟通与合作。 The socio-economic transformation promoted the economic and social development of Central and Eastern European countries. In particular, for Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, which have become EU member states, resource sharing and industrial transfer are driving economic growth by leaps and bounds. However, with the outbreak of the financial crisis, the economies of Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have significantly declined. The situation in Hungary is especially serious. However, Poland’s economy maintained positive growth. The relatively low economic openness and strong domestic demand dampened the economic downturn in Poland. The financial crisis hit the export chain and caused a chain reaction of contraction in Hungary, the Czech Republic and other sectors of the economy in Slovakia. At the same time, Hungary is more dependent on foreign currency loans than any other country, lacking in financial regulation, and its excessively high inflation poses a high risk to the financial system. Although all countries are faced with a relatively harsh business environment, the development of small and medium-sized enterprises has provided a guarantee for the steady growth of total domestic demand during the Polish economic and financial crisis. Poland’s economic stability does not mean that its social and economic transition has been the most successful. The structural problems of the labor market such as higher long-term unemployment rates and the unemployment rate of young people and the more serious corruption are issues common to all countries. Based on the weak links in the basis of the reality of development in Central and Eastern European countries and the horizontal comparison of international development, in the post-financial crisis era, the Central and Eastern European countries still face challenges in scientific research innovation, consolidation of finance and development of education. All countries should take up the challenge and seize the Opportunities and promote the healthy operation of their social and economic structural reforms while strengthening their communication and cooperation with China.
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