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依据安徽省2000-2012年工业行业能源消耗数据,分析各行业能源消耗总量及强度的时间变化规律,在此基础上将安徽省工业行业依据能耗强度分为高、中、低3个等级;同时采用LMDI分解法,将工业行业能源消耗的影响因素分解为强度效应、结构效应和生产效应。结果表明:安徽省各行业能耗总量逐年增加,能耗强度随经济发展呈幂指数衰减;总体来讲,生产效应是能耗增加的最重要的因素,强度效应是抑制能耗增加的关键因素,结构效应对于能耗变化的影响还未完全显现出来。另外,高、中、低三组行业中各影响因素的强弱变化出现明显差异,高耗能行业生产效应的增长是安徽省能耗增加的主要原因。因此,降低高能耗的能源消耗、促进中能耗组产业升级是安徽省当前工业改革的重点。
According to the energy consumption data of industrial sectors in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2012, the author analyzes the time variation of total energy consumption and intensity in various industries. Based on this, the industrial sectors in Anhui Province are divided into three levels of high, medium and low according to their energy intensity At the same time, LMDI method is used to decompose the influencing factors of industrial energy consumption into intensity effect, structure effect and production effect. The results show that the total energy consumption of all industries in Anhui Province increases year by year, and the intensity of energy consumption declines exponentially with the economic development. Generally speaking, the production effect is the most important factor of increasing energy consumption, and the intensity effect is the key to restrain the increase of energy consumption The influence of factors and structural effects on the change of energy consumption has not yet been completely revealed. In addition, the changes of the influencing factors in the three industries of high, medium and low industries showed obvious differences. The increase of production efficiency in high energy-consuming industries is the main reason for the increase of energy consumption in Anhui Province. Therefore, reducing the energy consumption of high energy consumption and promoting the industrial upgrading of the medium energy consumption group are the key points of current industrial reform in Anhui Province.