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经济预测是经济学家必须承担的任务之一,预测是否准确?一年前谁曾说了什么几乎被大多数所忘记。曾记得一年前,经济学家们聚在一起分析2002年中国经济走势的时候,由于受美国股市泡沫破裂和9·11恐怖袭击事件的打击,很多人都认为2002年的经济增长率会低于2001年,至多是持平。只有北京大学中国经济研究中心的宋国青教授认为,中国经济可以“坐8望9”。现在看来他“猜”对了。在新的一年来到时,经济学家们又在对2003年经济走势进行判断,鉴于2002年经济出色的表现,今年“看高派”成了主流,绝大多数人认为2003年经济增长率会在8％左右。
Economic forecasting is one of the tasks that economists must undertake. Is the forecast accurate? Who said something almost a year ago was forgotten by most. I remember one year ago when economists gathered to analyze the trend of the Chinese economy in 2002, many people believed that the economic growth rate in 2002 will be low due to the burst of the U.S. stock market bubble and the terrorist attacks of September 11. In 2001, it was at least flat. Only Professor Song Guoqing, from the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University, believes that China’s economy can “sit at 8”. It now appears he “guessed” right. In the new year, economists are again judging the economic trend in 2003. Given the excellent performance of the economy in 2002, the “watch high school” has become the mainstream this year. The overwhelming majority believe that the economic growth rate in 2003 Will be about 8%.