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针对导弹系统安全性评价的不确定性问题,提出了将灰色关联和D-S证据理论相结合的方法,从人员安全性、设备安全性和环境安全性建立了综合评估指标体系,用灰色关联分析处理了指标之间的关联性。在传统证据合成公式的基础上,考虑证据集非关键因素的权重,给出了修正的证据合成公式。并以打靶选弹为例进行了计算分析,得出了导弹安全性优先级排序,并将改进算法与传统计算方法的结果进行了比较,验证了评价模型的可行性与实用性,为导弹系统的管理工作提供了有益的参考。
Aiming at the uncertainty of missile system safety evaluation, a method combining gray relation and DS evidence theory is proposed. The comprehensive evaluation index system is established from the aspects of personnel safety, equipment safety and environmental safety, and the gray relational analysis The correlation between the indicators. Based on the traditional synthesis formula of evidence, the weight of non-critical factors in evidence set is considered, and a modified synthesis formula of evidence is given. And the target selection and missile bombing are taken as an example to carry on the calculation and analysis, the missile safety priority ranking is obtained, and the improved algorithm is compared with the traditional calculation method. The feasibility and practicability of the evaluation model are verified. Management provides a useful reference.