论文部分内容阅读
目的:了解浙江省近年来孕产妇死亡率的变化趋势,为卫生行政部门决策提供参考。方法:对浙江省2000～2005年孕产妇死亡监测资料建立灰色模型。结果:求得浙江省孕产妇死亡率(1/10万)的灰色预测模型为:Y(t+1)=-256.07e-0.068 8t+275.39。拟合检验显示该模型拟合精度好(P>0.95),平均相对误差较小,能够较好地预测浙江省孕产妇死亡趋势。结论:未来5年内浙江省孕产妇死亡率呈逐步下降趋势。
OBJECTIVE: To understand the trend of maternal mortality in Zhejiang Province in recent years and provide reference for the decision-making of health administrative departments. Methods: To establish a gray model of maternal mortality monitoring data from 2000 to 2005 in Zhejiang Province. Results: The gray prediction model of maternal mortality (1/10000) obtained in Zhejiang Province was: Y (t + 1) = - 256.07e-0.068 8t + 275.39. Fitting test showed that the model fitting accuracy (P> 0.95), the average relative error is small, can better predict the trend of maternal mortality in Zhejiang Province. Conclusion: The maternal mortality rate in Zhejiang Province shows a gradual downward trend in the next 5 years.