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本文首先从生产者追求利润最大化的动机出发推导出了一个包含要素价格实际增长率、资本增长率、生产者价格控制能力或规模增加(以勒纳指数增量表示)以及创新的经济收益增量(用资本市场贴现率增量代表)等解释变量的生产者层面技术创新决定方程。继而基于1992—2008年我国三次产业的相关数据研究了上述各变量对各产业技术创新的实际影响。结果表明,从长期来看,当要素价格实际增长率上升时,三次产业技术创新速度均呈加快趋势;资本增长率和资本市场贴现率增量对全要素生产率增长率的影响因产业而异;本文的研究结论还支持了“熊彼特”假说。最后,我们基于对各产业技术创新决定机制的认识,提出了一套旨在促进我国战略性新兴产业技术创新的政策建议。
This paper starts from the motivation of the producers to pursue the maximization of profit, and then deduces a set of factors including the real growth rate of the factor price, the capital growth rate, the producer price control ability or the increase of the scale (expressed in Lerner Index) (Represented by incremental capital market discount rates) and other explanatory variables such as producer-level technological innovation decision-making equation. Then based on the data of the three industries in China from 1992 to 2008, the actual impact of each of the above variables on technological innovation in various industries was studied. The results show that in the long run, when the real growth rate of factor prices increases, the technological innovation speed of the three industries shows an accelerating trend. The effects of the capital growth rate and the capital market discount rate increment on the TFP growth rate vary from industry to industry. The conclusion of this paper also supports the “Schumpeterian” hypothesis. Finally, on the basis of our understanding of the decision-making mechanism for technological innovation in various industries, we put forward a set of policy recommendations aimed at promoting technological innovation in China’s emerging strategic industries.