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本文以北京市8个行政区(东城区、西城区、石景山区、海淀区、朝阳区、昌平区、顺义区、怀柔区)的PM2.5指数计算各区逐月雾霞天气过程计数频数为研究对象,选择考虑包括地表温度、相对湿度、平均风速、SO_2质量浓度和NO_2质量浓度在内的5个影响因素。本文定义雾霾天气过程,构建分层贝叶斯时空模型,在一个统计模型中对诸多影响因素进行分析,并从计数分析的角度对北京市雾霾天气现象的时空分布、影响因素进行深入讨论。通过分析得出,温度、湿度、污染物浓度对于雾霾天气过程发生具有促进作用,平均风速对于雾霾天气过程发生具有抑制作用。从时空角度分析,从时间维度上看雾霾天气过程的发生具有明显的季节性特征,冬季(1月、2月)以及3月雾霾天气过程发生次数最高,春季(4月、5月)发生次数最低,秋季发生次数略高于夏季。从空间维度上来看,中心城区(东城区、西城区、石景山、海淀区、朝阳区)雾霾天气过程发生次数明显高于郊区(顺义、昌平、怀柔),以东城区、西城区和朝阳区最为严重。
In this paper, the PM2.5 index of eight administrative districts (Dongcheng, Xicheng, Shijingshan, Haidian, Chaoyang, Changping, Shunyi and Huairou) , Five factors including surface temperature, relative humidity, mean wind speed, SO 2 mass concentration and NO 2 mass concentration are considered. This paper defines the haze weather process and builds a layered Bayesian spatio-temporal model, analyzes a number of influential factors in a statistical model, and discusses the spatiotemporal distribution and influencing factors of haze weather in Beijing from the perspective of counting analysis . Through the analysis, it is concluded that the temperature, humidity and pollutant concentration have a positive effect on the haze weather process, and the average wind speed has an inhibitory effect on the haze weather process. From the perspective of time and space, the occurrence of fog haze weather has obvious seasonal characteristics from the time dimension, with the highest occurrences in winter (January, February) and March haze weather, the spring (April, May) Occurred the lowest number of occurrences in autumn is slightly higher than in summer. From the perspective of space, the number of smog and haze occurrences in the central urban areas (Dongcheng, Xicheng, Shijingshan, Haidian and Chaoyang) was significantly higher than that in the suburbs (Shunyi, Changping and Huairou), with Dongcheng, Xicheng and Chaoyang The most serious.