【摘 要】
：
针对海口市城镇化进程引致耕地减少这一问题,首先采用扩展Kaya恒等式以及LMDI分解模型,测算2004~2014年海口市城镇化引致的耕地减少量;然后运用经济学边际效应模型、回归分析
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针对海口市城镇化进程引致耕地减少这一问题,首先采用扩展Kaya恒等式以及LMDI分解模型,测算2004~2014年海口市城镇化引致的耕地减少量;然后运用经济学边际效应模型、回归分析以及函数求导方法,构建边际耕地变化率测度模型;最后利用Excel软件,构造趋势线模型,测算城镇化进程对耕地影响最小的极限时刻。结果表明,海口市边际耕地变化率曲线为开口向下的抛物线,其极值点大约出现在2008年。该结果可为相关部门制定土地利用规划以及耕地保护政策提供参考。
In order to reduce the cultivated land caused by the process of urbanization in Haikou City, the extended Kaya identity and the LMDI decomposition model are firstly used to measure the reduction of cultivated land caused by urbanization in Haikou City from 2004 to 2014. Then, using the marginal effect model of economics, regression analysis and function Finally, using Excel software, the trend line model is constructed to calculate the limit moment when the process of urbanization has the least impact on cultivated land. The results show that the curve of the rate of change of marginal cultivated land in Haikou City is a parabola with an open downward. The extreme point appears in 2008. The results can provide reference for relevant departments to formulate land use planning and farmland protection policies.
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