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目的应用ARIMA模型对麻疹发病数预测并探讨其可行性,为防控麻疹疫情提供依据。方法采用SPSS17.0对乌鲁木齐市2009-2015年麻疹月发病数的资料建立ARIMA模型,并预测2016年麻疹月发病数。结果建立模型ARIMA(0,0,1)(1,1,0)12是合适的,且模型检验自相关系数在±0.5之间,预测值与实际值有较高的吻合度。结论ARIMA模型能很好的拟合乌鲁木齐市麻疹发病数趋势,预测效果可靠。
Objective To predict the incidence of measles by using ARIMA model and explore its feasibility and provide basis for preventing and controlling the epidemic of measles. Methods The data of monthly incidence of measles in Urumqi from 2009 to 2015 were used to establish ARIMA model by SPSS17.0, and the monthly incidence of measles in 2016 was predicted. Results The model ARIMA (0,0,1) (1,1,0) 12 is suitable, and the autocorrelation coefficient of the model test is between ± 0.5. The predictive value has a good agreement with the actual value. Conclusion ARIMA model can well fit the trend of the incidence of measles in Urumqi, the prediction effect is reliable.