年初,在预测今年的世界经济走势时,伊拉克战争是否会爆发成了最大的变量。世界各国以及各国际组织均担心,战争一旦爆发会给脆弱的世界经济带来消极影响,造成的损失可能会大于战争本身的直接破坏。伊战爆发后,各方针对这一可能的影响又进行了进一步的分析和预测。目前的战事进展态势尚符合有利于经济发展的假设战争爆发前,美国国际战略研究中心(CSIS)和牛津经济预测中心等研究机构对战争对经济的影响进行了评估。 At the beginning of this year, whether the Iraq war broke out became the biggest variable when predicting the world economic trend this year. All countries in the world and other international organizations are worried that the outbreak of a war will have a negative impact on the fragile world economy and the losses may be greater than the direct destruction of the war itself. After the Iraq war broke out, all parties conducted further analyzes and forecasts on this possible impact. The current war situation is still in line with the assumption of conducive to economic development Before the war broke out, the United States International Center for Strategic Studies (CSIS) and Oxford Economic Forecasting Center and other research institutions on the impact of war on the economy were assessed.