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收集我国民航货运量及其影响要素(职工平均工资、人均GDP、GDP、人均消费支出、航线里程、全社会固定资产投资和人口数量)的统计数据为基础,应用多元回归模型和GM(1,1)模型对样本数据进行分别预测,以此为基础,指出引入诱导有序调和加权平均算子(IOWHA)进行组合预测的必要性,基于该算子的优化组合模型进行预测,并构建误差评价指标体系。结果表明,基于诱导有序调和加权平均算子的民航货运量预测的各项误差指标值均低于任一单项预测值,说明该组合预测模型的预测效果更佳,预测精度更高,可应用于实际预测。
Based on the statistical data of China’s civil aviation freight volume and its influencing factors (average wage of workers, GDP per capita, GDP per capita, route mileage, investment in fixed assets in the whole society and the population), we use multiple regression models and GM (1, 1) model respectively, based on which the necessity of introducing induced harmonic harmonic weighted operator (IOWHA) for combined forecasting is pointed out. Based on this model, the optimal combination model is used to predict and the error evaluation is constructed Indicator system. The results show that all the error indexes of civil aviation freight volume forecast based on induced harmonic mediation weighted average operator are lower than any single forecast value, which shows that the forecasting result of the combined forecasting model is better and the prediction accuracy is higher In the actual forecast.