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通过对北京北部山区荒溪灾害活动性的实地调查,在统计、归类分析的基础上,分别建立了北京北部山区荒溪灾害活动时期和荒溪灾害活动强度的灰色预测模型,由此得到了北京北部山区未来两次荒溪灾害强烈活动期的发生时间和强度.模型的预测精度好,取得了比较满意的结果.
Based on the statistics and classification analysis, a gray forecasting model of the barren brook activity and the barren brook activity intensity in the northern mountainous area of Beijing was set up by field survey on the activity of the barren brook in northern Beijing. From this, The occurrence time and intensity of the intense activity period of the next two streams in the northern mountainous area of Beijing. The prediction accuracy of the model is good and the result is satisfactory.