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越来越多的研究表明,我国石油消费弹性系数偏高、能源强度增大可以归结为经济发展方式和经济结构上存在的问题。或者说,在出口导向、投资拉动的粗放型经济发展方式下,片面追求GDP超高速增长,导致规划所拟定的节能减排指标很难实现。为此,须以体制改革促进经济发展方式的改变,使之形成适应工业化中后期阶段的经济结构;适当降低过高GDP年增长率、增加第三产业份额。这将从根本上为降低油气进口增速创造较宽松的条件。
More and more studies show that the elasticity of China’s oil consumption is high and the increase of energy intensity can be attributed to the problems of economic development mode and economic structure. In other words, under the export-oriented and investment-driven extensive economic development mode, the one-sided pursuit of ultra-rapid GDP growth leads to the difficulty of achieving the emission reduction targets set out in the plan. To this end, institutional reforms must be adopted to promote changes in the mode of economic development so that they will form an economic structure that is suitable for the middle and late stages of industrialization; appropriately reduce the annual growth rate of excessively high GDP and increase the share of the tertiary industry. This will fundamentally create more relaxed conditions for reducing the growth rate of oil and gas imports.