暴雨泥石流的发生是降雨作用于地面环境后,天地两系统中诸因素间的组合效应超过某一限值导致的结果。本文利用成昆铁路甘洛预报试验区1989～1990年64沟次观测资料,建立了预报暴雨泥石流发生的天地两系统的组合判别式,并用60年代以来我国西南、西北、东北等地区铁路沿线发生泥石流灾害的75沟次资料进行检验,结果较满意。所给出的指标具有一定代表性和准确性,可以作为泥石流发生的预报模式。 The occurrence of rainstorm debris flow is the result of the combined effect of various factors in the two systems of heaven and earth exceeding a certain limit after the rainfall is applied to the ground environment. Based on the observation data of 64 ditches from 1989 to 1990 in the experimental area of ​​Guanduo Railway in Cheng-Kun Railway, a combined discriminant of two heaven-earth systems was established to predict the occurrence of rainstorm debris flow. In the 1960s, the railway line in southwest, northwest and northeast of China Debris flow debris channel 75 times the test data, the results are more satisfactory. The indicators given are representative and accurate, which can be used as a prediction model of debris flow occurrence.