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信息技术的扩散使得世界经济维系了多年的高速增长。但当新技术对生产力推动的潜力被充分发挥时,超额利润动机的丧失将使世界经济出现危机与衰退。对处于生产可能性曲线之上的美国等发达国家来说,经济走出衰退依赖于新的一般性技术的出现。由于创新所具有的非连续性特征,因而短期内可能难以看到复苏的迹象。但对处于生产可能性曲线之内的发展中国家比如中国来说,通过持续的改革及城市化的推动,有望比美国等发达国家更快走出金融危机阴影和进入长期上升通道。
The proliferation of information technology has enabled the world economy to maintain its rapid growth for many years. However, when the potential of new technologies for promoting productivity is fully exploited, the loss of excess profit motives will lead to a crisis and recession in the world economy. For the developed countries such as the United States, which are on the curve of production possibilities, the economic downturn depends on the emergence of new general technologies. Due to the non-contiguous nature of innovation, it may be difficult to see signs of recovery in the short term. However, developing countries such as China, which are within the curve of production possibilities, are expected to move faster out of the shadow of the financial crisis and into the long-term upward path faster than developed countries such as the United States through sustained reforms and urbanization.