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本文基于住房使用成本模型,通过构建租金和房价变动的预测模型,并使用北京、上海、广州和深圳四大城市1993年第二季度至2010年第一季度的时间序列数据,考察了租金房价比对未来租金和房价变动的预测能力。研究发现:⑴北京、上海的租金房价比与未来房价变动呈负向关系,与现值模型预测相反,而深圳的二者关系为正,广州的租金房价比对于未来房价变动不存在统计意义上的预测能力;⑵北京、广州和深圳的租金房价比可以预测未来的租金变动率,二者呈反向关系,上海的相应统计值不显著。本文的经验结论表明,租金房价比作为估值指标在中国城市住房市场上的适用性值得谨慎判断。
Based on the cost model of housing use, this paper constructs a forecast model of rent and price changes and uses the time series data from the second quarter of 1993 to the first quarter of 2010 in four major cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Prediction of future rental and house price changes. The results show that: (1) The rent-to-price ratio in Beijing and Shanghai is negatively correlated with future house price changes. Contrary to the present value model, the relationship between Shenzhen and Shenzhen is positive. Guangzhou’s rent-to-price ratio is not statistically significant for future house price changes (2) Rent-to-price ratio of Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen can predict the future rate of change of rent, the two are in reverse relationship, and the corresponding statistics in Shanghai are not significant. The empirical results of this paper show that the applicability of rent-to-price ratio as a valuation indicator in China’s urban housing market deserves careful judgment.